Alameda County, CA -- On San Leandro Bay, Straddling the Hayward Fault

San Leandro / MarinaA Working City on the Bay, Mid-Redevelopment

San Leandro was laid out in 1855 on part of the roughly 6,830-acre Rancho San Leandro land grant awarded to José Joaquín Estudillo in 1842, served as the first seat of Alameda County government starting in 1856, and incorporated as its own city in 1872 -- but not before the Great Hayward Earthquake of October 21, 1868 collapsed the second floor of the county courthouse here and helped push the county seat permanently to Oakland instead. That single historical fact still frames how this page treats San Leandro's biggest hazard: the Hayward Fault's mapped trace doesn't run offshore or through the hills the way it does for some neighboring East Bay cities -- it runs directly through San Leandro's own eastern neighborhoods, near Fairmont Hospital, Estudillo Avenue, and Manor Park. And on the water, this page is not going to describe a thriving, active marina, because there isn't one right now: the City of San Leandro permanently closed and decommissioned the roughly 462-berth San Leandro Marina in January 2023 after concluding it couldn't afford the estimated $2 million cost to dredge its shoaling entrance channel, removed the docks, and let the basin begin filling naturally with sediment. The city's planned replacement -- the Monarch Bay Shoreline Development Project, a public-private redevelopment with Los Angeles-based Cal-Coast Companies approved in 2022 -- stalled in October 2024 when the developer's project-specific entity filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after defaulting on a $25 million bridge loan the city itself had extended. Marina Park, the Bay Trail, the fishing pier, Monarch Bay Golf Club, and the Wes McClure public boat launch reportedly remain open even with the marina basin shuttered, but this page treats the shoreline's current, unfinished, real state as the honest starting point, not an aspirational amenity list. San Leandro's broader identity is not a wealthy enclave story either: this was farm country known for its cherries before it industrialized, it is a majority-minority, working- and middle-class city today, and its most durable recent economic reinvention runs through municipal fiber-optic infrastructure and warehouse logistics rather than luxury waterfront housing. Where a figure could not be confirmed to one clean source this research pass -- an exact current marina berth count, a single reconciled crime figure, or the bankruptcy's resolution timeline -- this page says so rather than inventing a number.

Founded & Incorporated
Laid out 1855 on the Rancho San Leandro land grant; Alameda County's first seat of government (1856-1868); incorporated as a city in 1872
Population
90,731 residents at the 2020 Census (Census.gov cites 91,008 for the same count); median household income roughly $101,420 per a 2025 aggregator estimate
The Marina, Honestly
The city permanently closed and decommissioned its roughly 462-berth marina in January 2023 (unaffordable channel dredging) and its planned Cal-Coast-built replacement stalled into Chapter 11 bankruptcy in October 2024 after a $25 million city loan default
Seismic Setting
The Hayward Fault's mapped trace runs through San Leandro's own eastern neighborhoods -- not offshore, not through distant hills -- and the fault's 1868 rupture is the direct reason Alameda County's seat moved to Oakland
At a glance — the numbers agents don't quote
Marina-District Shoreline Sits on Bay Fill
San Leandro's shuttered marina and shoreline neighborhoods -- generally described in local hazard mapping as the Mulford-Marina district -- were built on filled former tidal marsh and bay mud rather than natural high ground, the same broad East Bay pattern documented at the Port of Richmond, the Bay Bridge toll plaza, and the Port of Oakland. That fill carries a real, elevated liquefaction risk during strong shaking, separate from the flood-insurance question covered on this site's Flood Zones page.
This is a real, geology-based hazard tied to specific fill-based ground near the water, not a citywide statement -- eastern, hillside San Leandro sits on different, more stable terrain. Confirm a specific parcel's liquefaction-zone status with the California Geological Survey and a licensed geotechnical engineer before buying near the shoreline.
No Wind Line Item -- the Real Hazard Runs Through the City Itself
San Leandro carries no hurricane or named-storm wind exposure, but it sits in a genuinely different position relative to the Hayward Fault than several neighboring East Bay markets: the fault's mapped trace runs through San Leandro's own eastern residential neighborhoods -- crossing near East 14th Street/Mission Boulevard, Fairmont Drive, and Estudillo Avenue -- rather than disappearing offshore or staying confined to a distant hills corridor.
The Hayward Fault ruptured here directly in 1868, collapsing the county courthouse; USGS paleoseismic research puts the fault's average recurrence interval between large ruptures at roughly 140-170 years, a window this site states as documented science, not a prediction. See the Hurricane & Storm Risk page (kept under that label sitewide for consistency, though the honest headline here is seismic) for the fuller picture.
Not Beach Erosion -- a Stalled BCDC-Regulated Redevelopment
San Leandro has no ocean-facing beach to renourish. Its shoreline story runs through the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC), which required the city's planned Monarch Bay Shoreline Development Project to be built 65 inches above current shoreline grade for future sea-level rise -- a real, confirmed condition on a project that is currently stalled in Chapter 11 bankruptcy after the developer defaulted on a $25 million loan from the city itself.
City officials, including Mayor Juan Gonzalez, have publicly said San Leandro remains committed to redeveloping the site and would bring in a different developer if the current one can't complete the project -- but as of this research pass, no confirmed resolution date exists. Confirm current project status directly with the City of San Leandro before assuming any timeline.
A Shoreline in Transition: Real Amenities, a Real Closure, and Real Neglect
San Leandro Bay's shoreline still holds real, public amenities -- Marina Park, a seven-mile paved Bay Trail segment to the Hayward Regional Shoreline Interpretive Center, a public fishing pier, the Wes McClure boat launch, and Monarch Bay Golf Club's two courses -- but the marina basin itself has sat empty and closed since January 2023, and an August 2024 CBS News San Francisco report documented vandalism, metal theft, and homeless individuals occupying derelict 'anchor-out' boats left in the shuttered basin.
This page treats both facts as true at once, the way this site covers other honest working-waterfront markets: real, still-open public recreation sitting directly next to a real, documented closure-and-neglect problem the city itself has publicly acknowledged, not a glossy amenity list with the hard parts left out.

What Actually Makes San Leandro Different

San Leandro is not a resort town, and it does not pretend to be one -- it is a working, majority-minority East Bay city of roughly 90,700 residents (2020 Census) that happens to sit directly on San Leandro Bay and directly across the Hayward Fault's own mapped trace. The city's roots go back to the roughly 6,830-acre Rancho San Leandro land grant awarded by Mexican Governor Juan Alvarado to José Joaquín Estudillo in 1842; the town itself was laid out in 1855 on a 200-acre tract by Estudillo's sons-in-law, and it briefly served as the first seat of Alameda County government starting in 1856. That first chapter ended abruptly: the Great Hayward Earthquake struck at roughly 7:53 a.m. on October 21, 1868, an estimated magnitude 6.3-6.7 event per USGS's modern reassessment (older accounts sometimes cite figures as high as 7.0) whose ground rupture was traced along the fault for some 20 miles, from Warm Springs in what is now Fremont north through San Leandro. The quake collapsed the second floor of the Alameda County Courthouse in San Leandro and damaged many other buildings in a town of only about 400 people at the time; combined with the transcontinental railroad's arrival in Oakland the following year, the county seat relocated to Oakland for good. San Leandro incorporated as its own city in 1872 and has run its own affairs ever since.

Before it industrialized, San Leandro was genuinely agricultural country, and its old nickname -- "Cherry City" -- is not marketing invention. The area's fertile flatlands, combined with bay access and early rail lines, made it a real produce-shipping hub for cherries, tomatoes, onions, potatoes, asparagus, sugar beets, and apricots grown on surrounding orchards and farms; the city's annual Cherry Festival, first held in 1909, drew a reported 45,000 attendees by 1910 and roughly 75,000 by 1912 before agriculture gradually gave way to manufacturing and, later, warehousing across the 20th century. That agricultural-to-industrial-to-logistics arc is the honest throughline of San Leandro's economy, not a single fixed identity -- and it continues today in genuinely current form: Ghirardelli Chocolate Company runs its main manufacturing facility here, Otis Spunkmeyer is headquartered in San Leandro with production facilities reported to turn out roughly 950,000 pounds of cookie dough and 1.5 million muffins weekly, and Amazon operates multiple fulfillment centers in the city (identified in industry tracking as DSF1, DSF4, and USF2) alongside continued Prologis-developed warehouse space aimed at last-mile distribution tenants -- a real, current logistics-sector presence, not a historical footnote.

San Leandro's more recent reinvention runs through infrastructure rather than luxury development. In 2011, Dr. J. Patrick Kennedy -- founder and CEO of OSIsoft, a San Leandro-based software company -- approached the city with a plan to light up its existing underground conduit with fiber optics; then-Mayor Pauline Russo Cutter backed the idea, and the resulting public-private partnership, branded Lit San Leandro, built out a 10-gigabit dark-fiber network that by later reporting had connected OSIsoft, the city itself, and more than 250 other San Leandro-based businesses. That fiber build is directly credited in local and trade coverage with drawing new technology and light-manufacturing tenants -- including a cluster of 3D-printing companies -- into a city whose mid-20th-century manufacturing base had otherwise been shrinking, a genuinely different redevelopment story than a waterfront condo boom.

The marina tells the honest, harder side of that redevelopment story. The San Leandro Marina operated for generations on San Leandro Bay with roughly 462 berths, two yacht clubs, and a roughly two-mile entrance channel connecting to the open bay -- but by early 2023, the city concluded it could not afford the estimated $2 million cost of dredging that channel, with no federal dredging funds available to help, and made the decision to permanently close and decommission the marina in January 2023: docks were removed, and the basin was left to fill naturally with sediment. The city's planned replacement, the Monarch Bay Shoreline Development Project -- a public-private redevelopment with Los Angeles-based Cal-Coast Companies, entitled by the City Council on June 21, 2022 with a development agreement executed December 22, 2022, and required by BCDC to be built 65 inches above current shoreline grade for future sea-level rise -- was reported in detailed 2024 coverage to include 491 for-sale homes and apartments, a 210-room hotel, a 16,000-square-foot restaurant, a 2,500-square-foot library, a revamped nine-hole golf course, and a 9-acre waterfront park (earlier city-facing materials described the residential component more roughly as "up to 500 housing units"). That project stalled hard in October 2024, when Monarch Bay For Sale Residential LLC, a Cal-Coast affiliate, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after defaulting on a $25 million bridge loan the City of San Leandro itself had extended for 15.9 acres of the project site. San Leandro Mayor Juan Gonzalez has publicly said the city remains committed to the project and would bring in a different developer if the current one can't execute, but this page found no confirmed resolution date as of this research pass. In the meantime, an August 2024 CBS News San Francisco report documented the closed marina basin drawing vandalism, metal theft, and homeless individuals living aboard derelict 'anchor-out' boats -- a real, current condition, not a hypothetical worst case.

Several things this research could not confirm to the standard this page requires before stating them as settled fact: a single reconciled current marina berth count (sources this research found cite 455, 462, and 465 across different points in time); a confirmed current resolution timeline for the Cal-Coast bankruptcy and Monarch Bay Shoreline Development Project; and a single reconciled citywide crime figure (CrimeGrade's own methodology places San Leandro in roughly the 33rd percentile for safety nationally, a C- grade, while NeighborhoodScout's separate methodology describes San Leandro as having one of the higher crime rates among all U.S. communities it tracks -- two real, disagreeing aggregator methodologies, not one confirmed government figure). Anyone seriously evaluating a purchase or move here should confirm current numbers directly with the City of San Leandro, the Alameda County Assessor's Office, a licensed California insurance agent, and San Leandro Unified School District rather than assuming a figure found online is current.

Property Tax (Alameda County, Prop 13)
1% constitutional base plus voter-approved local add-ons; Ownwell cites a San Leandro-specific median effective rate of 1.41%, above the California statewide median of 1.21%, with the city's three ZIP codes (94577, 94578, 94579) spreading roughly 1.37%-1.51% in the same dataset
Median Home Price
Roughly $813,600-$870,000 across multiple 2026 snapshots (Redfin, Zillow) -- sources disagree by tens of thousands of dollars on whether the figure sits closer to $813K or $870K in the same window
Sales Tax
10.75% combined (6% California state + 0.25% Alameda County + 0.5% San Leandro city + 4% special district), per Avalara -- among the higher combined municipal rates in Alameda County
Short-Term Rentals & Occupancy Tax
Hosted short-term rentals only -- the City Council banned non-hosted STRs on May 20, 2019 and separately adopted rules allowing regulated hosted STRs on June 3, 2019. A 14% Transient Occupancy Tax applies to gross rental income, due monthly

Independent research. No ads. No sponsored listings. Facts here are drawn from: the City of San Leandro's own website (sanleandro.org) for shoreline development, amenities, short-term rental ordinance, and transient occupancy tax information; the San Leandro Historical Society (sanleandrohistory.org) and the city's own "San Leandro in Perspective" planning-document history chapter for the Rancho San Leandro land grant, the 1855 town layout, 1856-1868 county-seat status, 1872 incorporation, and Cherry City agricultural and festival history; Wikipedia's Rancho San Leandro, 1868 Hayward earthquake, and San Leandro, California entries, cross-referenced against USGS's own "Where's the Hayward Fault?" guide (pubs.usgs.gov) and the 1992 USGS Miscellaneous Field Studies Map MF-2196 for the fault's San Leandro-area trace and the 1868 rupture's 20-mile documented length and courthouse damage; USGS paleoseismic research for the Hayward Fault's roughly 140-170 year average recurrence interval between large ruptures; the U.S. Census Bureau (2020 Census) for population figures; Neilsberg's 2025 median household income update and Data USA for income and poverty figures; CrimeGrade.org and NeighborhoodScout for citywide safety/crime data, explicitly flagged here as disagreeing methodologies rather than one confirmed government figure; CBS News San Francisco's August 2024 reporting and San Leandro Patch for the marina's January 2023 closure, its unaffordable dredging cost, and post-closure vandalism/metal-theft/anchor-out-boat conditions; The Real Deal and The Registry Northern California Real Estate for the October 2024 Cal-Coast affiliate Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, the $25 million city loan default, and the project's detailed 491-home/210-room-hotel scope; BCDC's own project exhibits (bcdc.ca.gov) for the Monarch Bay Shoreline Development Project's 65-inch freeboard requirement and 2022 approval/agreement dates; communitynets.org and Broadband Communities for the Lit San Leandro fiber network's 2011 founding, OSIsoft/Dr. Patrick Kennedy and Mayor Pauline Russo Cutter's roles, and its 250+ connected-business figure; Wikipedia and SEC filings for Ghirardelli's San Leandro manufacturing plant and Otis Spunkmeyer's headquarters and production volumes; Warehouse Worker Network for Amazon fulfillment center identification in San Leandro; Avalara and SalesTaxHandbook for the 10.75% combined sales tax rate; Ownwell for San Leandro's property-tax effective-rate figures; and Redfin and Zillow for home price snapshots, explicitly flagged as disagreeing with each other. Facts not independently confirmed and not invented here include: a single reconciled current marina berth count (455/462/465 all appear across sources); a confirmed resolution date or outcome for the Cal-Coast bankruptcy; a single reconciled citywide crime rate; and a specific mile distance from the Hayward Fault's mapped trace to any individual address. Confirm all current facts directly with the City of San Leandro, the Alameda County Assessor's Office, a licensed California insurance agent, San Leandro Unified School District, and a local buyer's agent before making a purchase, relocation, or investment decision. Nothing on this page is legal, tax, financial, or insurance advice.

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